Published 20.07.2021 RSE "Kazhydromet" has released forecasts of sugar beet and corn yield for 2021. These are still test forecasts, Professor A. N. Polevoy's dynamic model for two cultures was adapted in 2020. According to the results of this year's test, a decision will be made on the introduction of forecasts into production practice.
Forecasts are developed on the basis of meteorological data (temperature and relative humidity, precipitation, humidity deficiency) and the moisture reserve in the soil. Productive moisture reserves are taken into account as 80 % of the lowest field moisture capacity (optimal), that is, provided that the plants in the fields receive a vegetative irrigation water norm.
According to the calculated data obtained and taking into account the current and expected agrometeorological situation, the yield of corn for grain (in the "9th leaf" phase) in 2021 is expected to be generally below the average annual values in the Almaty region, in the Ili and Enbekshikazakh districts – about the average annual values.
In the Zhambyl region, the corn yield is also predicted to be mainly below the average annual values, about the norm in the Shusky district.
In the Turkestan region, the yield of corn for grain is mainly about the average annual values, higher than the norm in the Shardarinsky district, lower than the norm in the Otrarsky district.
The yield of sugar beet (in the "appearance of the 5th leaf" phase) in Almaty and Zhambyl regions is expected to be higher than the average annual values everywhere.
However, if the norms and terms of vegetation watering of vegetable crops are not observed, then there may be a shortage of the crop compared to the forecast one.