Published 30.09.2021 October is the time of transition from autumn to pre-winter. At this time, the weather presents its surprises, especially in the northern regions – according to long-term data, blizzards can be observed and even snow cover can be established.
According to the forecast, a cold anticyclone from the regions of Scandinavia and the Barents Sea, shifting through the European territory of Russia, will form the weather in the western half of the republic in early October. In the north, east, south-east and in the center of Kazakhstan, on the contrary, due to the depression of the western and southern cyclones and, with the passage of active frontal sections, precipitation is predicted (rain, snow, fog and icy phenomena, wind strengthening in the north with a grass-roots blizzard), heavy precipitation is possible in the mountainous regions of Kazakhstan.
The average monthly air temperature is expected to be around the multi-year norm in most of the country. Above the norm by 1 ° in Mangystau, Atyrau, Kyzylorda regions, in most of the West Kazakhstan, Aktobe regions, in the western half of Turkestan, in the southwest of Karaganda, in the south of Kostanay region.
Precipitation is expected to be about normal in most of the republic. Precipitation is expected to be less than normal in Mangistau, Kyzylorda regions, in most of Atyrau, Aktobe, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions, in the southern half of Kostanay, in the west and south of Karaganda, in the southwest of East Kazakhstan region.
In the first decade of the month, the invasion of the north-western anticyclone in the western regions will cause a decrease in air temperature at night to frosts of 1-3 degrees, during the day to +10 + 15 ° C. With further penetration of cold air masses in the north-west, north, east and center of Kazakhstan, the temperature will drop at night from -5+5 ° C to -1-8 ° C, during the day from +3+10 °C to 0,+5°C. In the south and south-east of the country, in the middle of the first decade, it will get colder at night to frosts of 1-3 degrees, in the afternoon to +5+13 ° C. From the second half of the first decade, it will warm up in most of the republic by 10-12 degrees.
In the second and third decades of October, with the south-western removal of warm air masses from the Mediterranean Sea and Central Asia, short-term heat waves are expected on some days, during the day the air will warm up to +13 +18 ° C, in the south-west, south, south-east of the republic - up to +19+25 ° C. Cold autumn days with precipitation, gusty winds, and frequent incursions of Arctic air masses are also predicted to cause a decrease in air temperature. In the northern half of Kazakhstan, the air temperature is expected to drop at night to -4-10 ° C, in the afternoon to -2+3 ° C, in the southern half - at night to -5+5 ° C, in the afternoon to +7+12 ° C.
Note: the advisory forecast for the month can be adjusted as the synoptic situation changes and will be updated with decade forecasts.