Kazhydromet has released a pilot project of a seasonal forecast for spring

IconPublished 15.02.2022

The seasonal weather forecast is a description of the averaged meteorological parameters (air temperature and precipitation) expressed as a deviation (anomaly) from the climatic values (norm) for the considered season.
On February 15, 2022, Kazhydromet released a pilot project of a seasonal forecast for spring, broken down into three months. In the future, the seasonal forecast will be compiled six times a year: 1 forecast for the warm half-year, 1 forecast for the cold half-year, which will be updated by 4 quarterly forecasts for winter, spring, summer and autumn in 14 regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
* February 15 for spring (March-May);
* March 15 for the warm period (April-October);
* May 15 for summer (June-August);
* August 15 for autumn (September-November);
* October 15 for the cold period (November-March);
* November 15 for winter (December-February).
In spring, more days with a positive air temperature anomaly are predicted, so in March, the average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1-2 °C above normal in most of the republic, about normal in West Kazakhstan, in the north-west of Atyrau region.
In April, almost throughout the country, the air temperature is expected to be above the norm by 1 ° C, about the norm - in West Kazakhstan, in most of East Kazakhstan, in the south-east of the Almaty region.
However, in spring, the weather can bring winter surprises, because during the transition season, synoptic processes are extremely unstable. With inflows of cold air masses, blizzards with snowfall can also roam mainly in the northern regions, and with Arctic invasions of anticyclones, frosts are likely in the southern regions.
 In May, the average monthly air temperature in most of the republic is expected to be around the multi-year norm. However, in a number of regions in May days, the air temperature is more often expected to be below the climatic norm by 1 ° C - in the northern, central and eastern regions of the country. It is assumed that this will be due to the influx of cold air masses from the regions of Siberia.
The amount of precipitation in March is predicted to be about normal in most of the republic, more than normal – in the north-western part of Kazakhstan. In April, precipitation is expected to be less than normal in most of the republic, about normal in the west, in the far north of the country, in the southeastern half of East Kazakhstan and Almaty regions, in mountainous, foothill areas of Turkestan and Zhambyl regions. In May, precipitation is expected to be about normal in most of the republic, less than normal – in Kyzylorda, in most of Turkestan, Kostanay, in the western half of Karaganda region, in the northwestern half of Zhambyl region, in the extreme south-east of Aktobe region.

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