How weather forecasts are formed

IconPublished 08.12.2023

The weather station "Akkol" of the branch of RSE "Kazhydromet" in the Akmola region, one of 15 stations, traces its history back to 1909. It was then that the first observations were carried out at the meteorological point of the Akmola regional agronomic organization, located at that time near the village of Alekseevka (now Akkol). Then, for 15 years, until 1926, the meteorological station operated at the agronomic point. The rain measuring post was located at the school of the village's working youth, and since 1934 the weather station has been operating without interruption. As Tatyana Gennadyevna Kozhukhova, the head of the MS, told us, when organizing the station, the meteorological site was located in the experimental garden of the agronomic point. In 1934, the meteorological site was moved 1.5 km north-northeast to the southeastern outskirts of the village, and today the object is located almost in the center of the city of Akkol. - According to the current qualification, from 1932 to the present, the weather station belongs to the II category. Our international exchange station is a reference one. We monitor atmospheric phenomena, air temperature and the temperature of the underlying soil surface, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind direction and speed, meteorological visibility range, and the state of the radiation background. And in winter, we monitor the condition and height of the snow cover, make snow surveys along the field route, record the freezing of the soil, - the interlocutor shares her working days. According to the forecaster, today the percentage of justifiability of short- and medium-term weather forecasts for the Akmola region, i.e. for 1-3 days, weekly, decadal is more than 90-95%. The validity of long-term forecasts, such as monthly forecasts, for the season is slightly lower from 75 to 90%, and they should only be accepted as advisory forecasts, which are constantly adjusted by medium- and short-term weather forecasts. - Initially, a synoptic map is compiled based on the data collection of our station and other stations. Only then the forecast is formed. The climate today is subject to change and the rate of change of natural phenomena has increased. There are a lot of phenomena that are simply unusual for our area: a tornado in 2008, but the northern lights in early November, etc. Due to this factor, forecasting is becoming more and more difficult," says another meteorologist Nadezhda Gurishkina, who heads the department of hydrometeorological and agrometeorological monitoring and forecasting of the Akmola branch. A small team of the station performs very important work – in addition to those mentioned earlier, it monitors dangerous and spontaneous hydrometeorological phenomena such as stormy weather, among other things, each has its own parameters, meteorological visibility range, wind direction and speed, snow cover observations, snow-measuring surveys are carried out in the field (with stable snow cover in winter – every 10 days, and during the snowmelt period – every 5 days in spring and even more often - 2-3 days, the field route is 2 km). - We determine the shape and type of clouds, its lower boundary for the clouds of the lower tier (three tiers - lower, middle and upper) – we visually determine everything. We have round-the-clock observations, processing incoming information every 3 hours, that is, 8 terms per day, - says Tatyana Gennadievna. As noted above, the station's staff is small, only 4 people work here, although 5 are required according to the staffing table. All employees are responsible, competent, knowledgeable experts. The head Tatyana Kozhukhova has a quarter of a century of work experience, of which she has been running the station since 2014. Tatyana Gennadievna is a graduate of Omsk State University with a degree in chemistry. - At the moment, the four of us are working here. According to the staff, 5 people are supposed to, well, they hardly found a student while her training is underway. The work is not easy – round the clock, in shifts. Our old–timers are Perederei N.P., her experience of 38 years of work at this station, Luginina O.V. has worked with us for 24 years, has a higher meteorological education, Gorlenko T.P. has been working here for more than 10 years. By the way, the joint contribution of experts last year was marked with commemorative medals in honor of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the head enterprise of RSE Kazhydromet, and the station itself was awarded a certificate of honor. In 2018, the Akkolskaya MS was awarded the World Meteorological Organization badge as a station that has been operating for more than a century. According to N. Gurishkina, today, in order to improve the accuracy of forecasts, Kazhydromet RSE is constantly upgrading instruments and equipment, increasing the number of observation posts, as well as opening new aerological stations, installing radars, developing new models for making weather forecasts, etc. - Nadezhda Valeryevna, and what technologies do you use to collect up-to-date weather information? - All over the world, on land and at sea, there are tens of thousands of meteorological stations monitoring the current weather, atmospheric and climatic conditions. Weather stations are special sites where meteorological measurements of weather and climate are continuously carried out. Meteorological measuring devices are installed at the stations: a thermometer, a hygrometer, a barometer, a precipitation meter and other devices. They are almost the same all over the world. For accuracy, meteorologists take measurements regularly and synchronously — every 3 hours. There are different types of ground-based weather stations: traditional ones, like our weather station, as well as huge masts in fields, floating buoys in the sea, spherical radars. Some of the stations are located as autonomous devices in hard-to-reach places such as mountains and seas. In addition to traditional stations, automatic meteorological stations, weather balloons, meteorological radars, and weather satellites are used. It should be added that up-to-date information about the current state of the weather and the weather forecast within, for example, the city of Akkol can be viewed in a specialized Internet application for farmers developed by RSE Kazhydromet - www.agrodata.kz . In addition, on the official website of the company, in the "Weather Forecasts" section, you can also get acquainted with the actual weather and weather forecasts of various timelines, as well as storm warnings. Current weather data is updated every 3 hours and includes: air temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure (in millimeters of mercury), wind speed (in meters per second) and wind direction (infographic – the tip of the arrow indicates where the wind is blowing from). - When was the complete digitalization of equipment and equipment at the station carried out or planned? - To date, Kazhydromet RSE is working on a phased modernization of devices and equipment, and a Plan for the modernization of the observation network for 2024-2030 is being developed, which provides for the transition to more modern, modernized and automated devices and equipment. - How does the predicted weather coincide with the actual one – is there such an analysis of the accuracy of forecasts? - Such an analysis is not carried out at the meteorological station, forecasters of RSE Kazhydromet are engaged in this. Each weather forecast is necessarily evaluated for justifiability. For example, the day before yesterday, the weather forecast for December 1, 2023 was released, as well as a storm warning. On December 2, after collecting the received information from meteorological stations and posts, forecasters analyze the actual weather for the past day, as well as assess the validity of the forecast and storm warnings issued by Kazhydromet RSE for that day, that is, they assess how correctly the weather forecast and storm warning were compiled.
Author Dinara Arkharova newspaper "Akkol Arayi"

Share this news in social networks