Preliminary forecast of spring floods in 2026 in Zhetysu, Ulytau, West Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions

RSE "Kazhydromet" classifies a number of regions of Kazakhstan as a medium-risk zone for the passage of spring floods in 2026. According to the preliminary hydrological forecast, the average level of flood risk is expected in the territory of Zhetysu region, Ulytau region, West Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions.
The forecast was made on the basis of the analysis of perennial Hydrometeorological observations, taking into account the autumn moistening of the soil, the depth of its freezing, the accumulation of snow reserves, the distribution of winter precipitation and the expected temperature conditions during the period of spring snowmelt. According to experts, local flooding may occur in these regions, depending on the intensity of snowmelt, temperature regime and additional precipitation.
In the semirechye region, the flood situation depends on the uneven fall of winter precipitation and the depth of soil freezing. In the ulytau region, the danger lies in the high depth of soil freezing and uneven distribution of precipitation. In the West Kazakhstan region, it is expected that floods in the tributaries of the Ural River will pass near the average level, and in some places at high levels.        During a sharp increase in air temperature and precipitation in the Turkestan region, the likelihood of snow and rain floods in mountain rivers remains.
"According to RSE ""Kazhydromet"", after the release of rivers from the ice cap, short-term hydrological forecasts will be presented weekly in order to promptly inform the state bodies and the population."
The forecast is preliminary in nature and is refined as synoptic and hydrological conditions change.