Published 20.10.2020 In the Northern half, in the East and in the center of the Republic, winter weather is forecast in the first half of the month. Precipitation (mostly snow), gusty winds with blizzards, as well as ice and fog will be frequent throughout November. In the coldest days of the first half of the month, the thermometer will drop at night to-10-23°C, in the afternoon to-2-10°C. In the third decade, the cold waves are expected to be more intense. When changing cold air masses to warm, the thermometer columns will reach +5+12°C.
In the southern half of the country, precipitation (rain, sleet) is expected in the second half of the month, in mountainous areas it is possible earlier. At the same time, the temperature background will drop at night to-5-12°C, during the day to -1+5°C. In the warmest days of the South of the country, the air will warm up to +12+20°C.
During the month, we expect a frequent change of warm days to frosty ones, especially in the Northern half of the country.
Thus, the air temperature in most of Kazakhstan is expected to be around normal, in the North-Western half of the country – above normal by 1°C, in the mountainous and foothill regions of the South, South-East and East - below normal by 1°C.
Precipitation in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan is expected to be about normal, in the North-Eastern half and in the mountainous, foothill areas of the South-Eastern part of the country - more than normal, in the South-Western half of the Republic - less than normal.
In November, the snow cover appears and sets. According to long-term data, the average date of snow cover establishment is:
in the Northern and Eastern regions - in mid - November,
in the Central part of Kazakhstan- in the second half of November,
in the West and South-East of the country - at the end of November and the first half of December,
in the South and South-West of the Republic even later - in the third decade of December.
Winter of 2020-2021 it is expected according to the scenario of last year's winter, that is, warm and rich in precipitation.
In the winter of last year, the Western transfer was often carried out to the territory of Kazakhstan, which brought warm and humid air masses from the Atlantic regions. In the surface layer, there was active cyclonic activity and frequent passage of atmospheric fronts, which caused heavy precipitation in most of the Republic. The greatest impact of this activity was manifested in the North-East and in the center of the country, a series of deep cyclones brought extremely unfavorable weather: there were frequent and heavy snowfalls with blizzards that had a duration of 12-25 hours, reduced visibility to 50 m, wind increased to 30-35 m/s.
In the coming winter, the temperature background on the territory of Kazakhstan is expected to exceed the climatic norm by 1-2°C, only in the mountainous and foothill regions of the South, South-East and East of the country – about normal.
In December and January, precipitation is forecast for most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with the exception of the West of the Republic.in February, precipitation is expected to be higher than normal in most of the country, and about normal in the South - Western half.
The beginning of spring, namely March is supposed to be warm and low-precipitation. The average monthly air temperature in most of the territory of Kazakhstan is predicted to be 1-2°C higher than normal, and about normal in the mountainous and foothill regions of Almaty and East Kazakhstan regions. Precipitation is expected to be less than normal in most of the country, near normal in the far North and South-Eastern parts of East Kazakhstan and Almaty regions, and higher than normal in the mountains of the East of Kazakhstan.
Note: the seasonal forecast represents deviations from the climate norm of air temperature and precipitation, i.e. the month will be warmer or colder, rainy or drier relative to the norm. Since this type of forecast has an error and a shift in the timing of the onset of cold and heat waves, the seasonal forecast should be used as an Advisory, which is then updated with weather forecasts for the month, decade, and week.