Published 14.03.2024 To date, the hydrometeorological situation in Kazakhstan is as follows: the area of the territory of Kazakhstan covered with snow has decreased from seventy-two to sixty-six percent.
The volume of moisture reserves in the lowland rivers of Kazakhstan, which are marked by an uneven distribution, according to data for the period from March 1 to March 7, show the following results:
In Karaganda and Ulytau regions, the basins of the Nura and Sherubainura rivers decreased by twenty-seven and fifty-two percent, respectively, while in the Kengir River they remained within the long-term average values.
In the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions, the Yesil River basin in the Kalkutan tributary decreased by twelve percent, and the tributaries of the Zhabai, Selety, Shagalaly river basins and the Sergeyevsky reservoir increased from twenty-eight to sixty-six percent, respectively.
In Aktobe region, the Ilek and Kargaly river basins increased by four and fifteen percent, respectively.
In the West Kazakhstan region, in the Utva River basin, within the long-term average values, in the Chizha-2 river basin decreased by twenty-eight percent. In the basins of the Derkul and Shagan rivers, they increased by sixty-seven and forty-one percent.
In the Kostanay region, the river basins above the Verkhne-Tobolsk reservoir decreased by sixteen percent, and in the tributaries of the Karatomar reservoir decreased by fifty-one percent.
The situation for mountain rivers is as follows:
In the East Kazakhstan and Abai regions in the river basins of the right-bank tributaries of theErtis is sixty-nine percent higher than the average long-term values, in the river basins of the Buktyrma reservoir zone by one hundred percent, in the left-bank tributaries of the Ertis river by forty-one, in the river basins of the southwestern slope of the Tarbagatai ridge within the average long-term values.
In the Zhambyl region, the river basins of the northeastern slope of the Karatau range are twenty-seven percent lower than the long-term average values, and in the river basins of the Kyrgyz range by seventy-one percent.
In the Turkestan region, the basins of the Arys River and its tributaries are within the average long-term values, in the river basins of the southwestern slope of the Karatau ridge are twenty-six percent lower than the average long-term values, and in the river basins of the northwestern spur of the Talas Alatau by twenty-one percent.
In the Almaty region and the Zhetisu region, in the river basins of the southern slope of the Ili Alatau and the Northern slope of the Ketmen ridge, in the basins of the Zhetysu Alatau and the northern slope of the Ili Alatau within the long-term average values.
In the coming days and in the third decade of March, snow, blizzard, and gusty winds are forecast for most of Kazakhstan, with the exception of the western regions. In the period of March 16-19, a short-term cessation of precipitation and an increase in the temperature background are predicted. At the end, in the northern half at night up to +3 °C, in the afternoon up to +13°C, in the south - at night up to +2+10 °C, in the afternoon up to +15+21°C.
In April, the average monthly air temperature is expected to be above normal by 1 ° in most of Kazakhstan, about normal in the northwestern half of Kazakhstan.
Precipitation is expected to be higher than normal in most of the territory of the republic, about normal in the northeast, in the center and in the north of the southern regions of Kazakhstan.
At the end of the first decade of April, a significant heat wave is expected - in most parts of the republic, the daytime air temperature will be +10+20 °C, in the south of the country +22+30 °C.
In the second and third decades of April, the temperature will fluctuate:
In West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar, Karaganda, East Kazakhstan regions, in the northern half of Aktobe region and in the regions of Ulytau and Abai at night from -5+5°C to +3+8°C, in the daytime from 0,+8°C to +15+20°C.
In Atyrau, Mangystau, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions and Zhetisu region at night from 0,+5°C to +3+12°C, during the day from +10+15 °From up to +17+25°C.
At the beginning of the third decade, the temperature background is expected to decrease:
in most of the country at night to -10-20 ° C, in the afternoon to -2-7 ° C;
In Atyrau, Mangystau, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions and the Zhetisu region at night to 0-7°C, in the afternoon to +7+12 °C.
At the end of March, the air temperature will rise:
In West Kazakhstan, Aktobe, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar, Karaganda, East Kazakhstan regions, in the region of Ulytau and Abai at night up to -5+3 ° C, in the afternoon up to +3+13 °C,
In Atyrau, Mangystau, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty and Zhetisu regions - at night up to +2+10 °C, in the afternoon up to +15+21 ° C.
Taking into account the accumulated moisture reserves in lowland and mountain river basins, as well as autumn moisture and the depth of soil freezing, at the moment it is necessary to pay attention to certain regions with increased flood risks. According to Kazhydromet experts, an increase in the temperature background is expected by the end of March, which will lead to intense snowmelt and the threat of flooding. Special attention should be paid to the border regions with the Russian Federation, namely the basins of the Ural River and its tributaries and the Tobol. Now in the Orenburg and Chelyabinsk regions, as well as in the Republic of Bashkortostan, according to Roshydromet, an unfavorable flood situation has developed due to the accumulated amount of snow.
On a regular basis, Kazhydromet specialists issue storm warnings about natural hydrometeorological phenomena, which are provided to local executive bodies and the Ministry of Emergency Situations for local decision-making.
At the moment, the regions with increased risks are: Abai, Akmola, Aktobe, Almaty, East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan regions and the Zhetisu region.
With medium risks: Atyrau, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, Pavlodar, Turkestan regions and Ulytau region.
With low risks: Mangystau region.
Hydrological monitoring is carried out at 377 hydrological posts, during the period of sharp and dangerous fluctuations in water levels in rivers, observations are carried out more frequently.