Preliminary forecast of spring floods in Atyrau, Mangistau, Kyzylorda and Zhambyl regions in 2026

RSE "Kazhydromet" classified Atyrau, Mangistau, Kyzylorda and Zhambyl regions as low risk zones for spring floods in 2026. According to the preliminary hydrological forecast, the flood situation in these regions remains within the range of perennial average values, in some areas there is a possibility of flooding of local areas.
The forecast was prepared taking into account perennial Hydrometeorological observations, the level of autumn soil moisture, the depth of its freezing, the volume of snow reserves, ice conditions in rivers and the expected temperature conditions in the spring period.
In Atyrau region, spring floods are expected at a moderate level, and Zhylyoi (Emba River) and Kyzylkoginsky (Sagyz River) districts are classified as low-risk areas. In Zhambyl region, Zhualyn, Zhambyl and Merke districts are classified as medium-risk zones, while other districts of the region are included in the low-risk zone.
In Kyzylorda region, the risk of flooding is mostly minimal, only in Zhalagash district there is a high risk. Among the areas of moderate danger are Zhanakorgan, Shieli, Syrdarya, Karmakshy, Kazalinsky districts and the city of Kyzylorda.
Due to the fact that no surface runoff is formed in the Mangystau region, the risk of spring flooding is estimated as minimal. Local local flooding is possible only in the case of heavy precipitation during snowmelt.
RSE "Kazhydromet" noted that the forecast is preliminary and will be clarified depending on the development of synoptic and hydrological conditions. If necessary, operational notification of the population and interested services about changes in the flood situation is organized.