Advisory weather forecast for the season

IconPublished 18.10.2022

Seasonal weather forecast for the cold half
of the year on the territory of Kazakhstan for November 2022 - March 2023

The seasonal weather forecast is issued six times a year: 1 forecast for the warm half-year, 1 forecast for the cold half-year, which are specified by 4 quarterly forecasts for winter, spring, summer and autumn in 17 regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
• February 15 for spring (March-May);
• March 15 for the warm period (April-October);
• May 15 for summer (June-August);
• August 15 for autumn (September-November);
• October 15 for the cold period (November-March);
• November 15 for winter (December-February).

November is the first month of the pre-winter season.
In November, the air temperature throughout the Republic is forecast within the climatic norm, precipitation distribution is expected as follows:
in the western half of the Republic of Kazakhstan it is less than normal, in the eastern half it is about normal.  
During the month, with frequent changes of baric formations and synoptic processes, fluctuations in air temperature, fogs and icy phenomena are predicted, and with the establishment of snow cover and increased wind activity in the north of the country, blizzards are possible.
In the first decade of November, warm weather will still remain, but in the second and third decades of the month, cold air masses from the Northern Seas, Western and Eastern Siberia will often enter the territory of Kazakhstan. Thus:
- in the western regions of the country, the air temperature will gradually decrease at night from +3+10°From -5-17°C, during the day from +12+22 °C to -2-10 °C. A slight increase is forecast at the end of the month;
- in the northern, central and eastern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the first decade, the air temperature is expected to fluctuate at night from 0,-10 ° C to 0,+5 °C, during the day from 0,+5 ° C to +5+15 ° C. In the second and third decades, the air temperature will drop significantly at night to -15-20 ° C, during the day to -5-12 ° C;
- in the south, south-east of the republic, a high background of daytime air temperatures of +12+20 ° C is expected in the first decade. Then a gradual decrease in air temperature is predicted at night to -10-17 ° C, during the day to -1-8 ° C.
In the first two months of winter in December and January in most of Kazakhstan, the air temperature is expected to be above the norm by 1 °, within the normal range it is predicted in December in the south-western, central and southern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in January - in the extreme south of the country. Precipitation is predicted to be about normal in most of the republic, precipitation is expected to be higher in December in the north of the republic, less than normal in the south-west of the country, in January more than normal - in the far west, in the north-eastern half of the Republic, south-east of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
At the end of winter and in March, in most parts of the republic, the air temperature is predicted to be about normal, above normal by 1° in the west of the republic, below normal by 1° in February in the center of the republic, in most parts of Kyzylorda, Abai, in the south of Kostanay, Akmola, Pavlodar and East Kazakhstan, in the far north of Turkestan, Zhambyl and Almaty regions, in March - in the center of the country, in most parts of Pavlodar, Abay, in the northeast of Kyzylorda, in the north of Turkestan, Zhambyl, in the extreme northwest of Almaty, Zhetysu and East Kazakhstan regions. In February and early spring, precipitation is expected to be less than normal in most of Kazakhstan. However, it is possible that on some days with active cyclonic activity, a monthly precipitation rate may fall per day. In the second half of March, the transition from winter to spring will begin in most regions of the republic, while the weather will again be unstable.
With the movement of cyclones and atmospheric fronts, frost weakening, precipitation are expected, mainly in the form of snow in the northern regions, wind strengthening with blizzards, and mixed precipitation (rain, sleet) in the southern regions.

The seasonal forecast should be used as an advisory, which is updated with forecasts for shorter periods (quarterly seasonal forecast, month, decade, week and day).
For reference: the seasonal weather forecast is a description of the averaged meteorological parameters for air temperature and precipitation, expressed as a deviation (anomaly) from the climatic norms for the season in question.

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