Daily bulletin of mudflow hazard of rain genesis

IconPublished 11.04.2022

RSE "Kazhydromet" in the mudflow-prone period (May-September) issues a daily (on working days) Bulletin of mudflow hazard of rain genesis.

In the mountains of Kazakhstan, mudslides can be caused by the precipitation of intense prolonged rains; the breakthrough of reservoirs (surface and underground) on moraine-glacial complexes; earthquakes; landslides that transform into fast-flowing streams; landslides that can displace water from lakes or create explosive dams on mountain rivers; human activity (violation of soil and vegetation cover on mountain slopes, uncontrolled irrigation of garden plots on mountain slopes, etc.); avalanche-like destruction of ice cover on mountain rivers, formed when the air temperature drops sharply in the autumn-winter period.

RSE "Kazhydromet" makes consultations and forecasts of mudflow hazard caused by the fallout of intense prolonged rains.

A mudflow hazard consultation is given when forecasters do not have a methodology that meets the requirements for making mudflow forecasts, as well as in the absence of reliable information about the quantitative characteristics of mudflow-forming factors.
Consultations on mudflow hazards are compiled for mudflow-prone areas of Almaty, Zhetysu, Zhambyl, Turkestan, Mangystau, Abai and East Kazakhstan regions. The mudslide-prone areas include the ridges: Ile, Kungei, Teriskei, Zhetysu, Kirghiz and Talas Alatau, Ugam ridge, Mangystau mountains, Saur, Tarbagatai and Kazakh Altai. 
For the basins of the Kishi and Ulken rivers of Almaty (Ile Alatau ridge), ultra-short-term forecasts of catastrophic mudflows of rain genesis are compiled according to the methodology developed at the Kazhydromet RSE. The possibility of making forecasts for these mudflow basins appeared due to the minimum required density of weather stations and hydro posts on the territory of these basins, the study of hydrometeorological conditions, geological and geomorphological structure of the basins, vegetation cover, as well as the availability of reliable information about the dates of formation, genesis and scale of mudflow phenomena in the past.
Ultra-short-term forecasts of mudflows give sufficient confidence that the expected phenomenon will be close to reality. At the same time, the advance warning is sufficient to take measures to reduce possible damage.

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